Complexus — Geopolitical RiskComplexus
About us

An analyst-led practice for decisions made across borders.

Complexus brings the discipline of professional intelligence analysis to organisations that face political risk abroad but have no one in-house to assess it.

Coverage

Central and Eastern Europe · the Balkans · Turkey · the Caucasus · Central Asia · MENA

Clients

Importers, startups, nonprofits and investors without an analyst of their own

Standard

Explicit probabilities, stated assumptions

Our position

Large risk firms are built for large clients. We work for the organisations in between.

The importer with one critical supplier abroad. The startup building a team in Eastern Europe. The nonprofit with staff in the field. The family office weighing a new market. Each faces real political risk, usually without an analyst to tell them what it means for them.

We give them analysis held to the standards of professional intelligence work, scoped and priced to the decision in front of them, and written in plain language.

Who does the work

Every engagement is led by the partners, and both partners review every assessment before it reaches you.

Tyler Urish

Managing Director · Geopolitical Analysis

Tyler’s specialisation is geopolitical analysis with a focus on Russian policy and strategy. He has studied Russian academically for twelve years and spent two years in Birmingham, England, leading Russian-language work with refugees and migrants from Ukraine, Russia, Latvia, Lithuania and Moldova, helping families with resettlement and employment. That experience gave him a ground-level view of the effects of conflict and displacement on individuals and families, as well as of Eastern European cultural dynamics.

As a research analyst for academic coursework in international relations, terrorism, security and law, Tyler conducts open-source investigations on the war in Ukraine. His research centres on Russian strategy toward Europe and NATO’s response, including allied force design and defence readiness on the eastern flank. He has also researched small-state diplomacy in post-communist Albania and the Western Balkans’ path into NATO.

Background

  • B.A. in Political Science and Foreign Affairs, minor in Russian
  • Russian: professional working proficiency
  • Trained in open-source investigation, geolocation, structured analytic techniques and intelligence brief production
  • Geospatial analysis, quantitative modelling and AI-assisted research tooling
  • Designs and runs geopolitical wargames and crisis simulations, and convenes expert forums on regional security

On an engagement, Tyler leads the forecasting method, coverage of Russia and Ukraine, the Baltics and Moldova, the security and conflict side of the Middle East, local-language collection, and exposure maps.

Luca M. Mema

Managing Director · Client Strategy and Markets

Luca leads client strategy at Complexus and owns the market side of every engagement: translating political forecasts into financial impact, operational exposure and decisions leadership teams can act on. His work sits at the intersection of politics, investor behaviour and price, a focus he has followed through years of daily study of global markets and international affairs.

Alongside Complexus, Luca is co-founder and CEO of a strategy consulting firm that advises startups, nonprofits and small businesses on growth strategy, operations and digital presence, including support for executive training programmes abroad. He is an alumnus of Harvard’s Undergraduate Foreign Policy Initiative and International Relations Scholars Program, and has lived and worked across Europe, Asia and the United States.

Background

  • Strategic Management, Brigham Young University; minor in Political Science
  • Education in finance, accounting, economics and data analysis
  • Harvard Undergraduate Foreign Policy Initiative and International Relations Scholars Program
  • Crisis-response coordination alongside the Red Cross and interfaith partners

On an engagement, Luca leads the client relationship, coverage of the Western Balkans and Central Europe, the energy, trade and market side of the Middle East, the financial impact of each scenario, and turning forecasts into decisions a team can act on.

Specialties

What the firm brings to an engagement.

Regional depth A defined set of regions, covered closely.

Central and Eastern Europe, the Balkans, Turkey, the Caucasus, Central Asia, and the Middle East and North Africa: regions where events in one travel quickly into the others. We take work beyond them only when we can build an equally reliable source base.

Security and conflict How pressure turns into disruption.

Armed conflict, coercion short of war, sanctions, political violence and strategic competition between states, including the growing role of emerging technology and AI in international security.

Local-language research Read at the source, not in translation.

Official statements, regional media and local reporting reviewed in the original language, including Russian-language sources, so that the analysis does not depend on what has been translated.

Structured analysis Tested before it is trusted.

The techniques of professional intelligence work: key-assumptions checks, competing hypotheses, red-teaming, scenarios and indicators. Findings are written bottom line first, with a probability and a time horizon attached.

Geospatial and quantitative methods Exposure, mapped.

Geographic mapping of suppliers, routes and chokepoints, event data, and statistical checks that put numbers behind a judgment where the evidence supports them.

Markets and strategy From headline to balance sheet.

Translating political developments into their commercial consequences for suppliers, freight, insurance, staff and investment, drawing on advisory experience with startups, nonprofits and growing businesses across the United States, Europe and Asia.

How we work

Narrow by design.

A defined set of regions, covered well, rather than the whole world covered thinly.

Uncertainty, stated plainly.

Every judgment carries a probability, a time horizon and the assumptions behind it.

Built around a decision.

Work begins with the question you need to answer, not a generic risk score.

A record we can be held to.

Judgments are logged and revisited as events unfold, so accuracy can be measured rather than claimed.

An analyst checks every claim.

Technology speeds up collection. A person verifies everything a client reads.

Held in confidence.

Client names, questions and findings stay private.

Scope

What we do not do.

  • Investment, legal or compliance advice
  • Classified or unlawfully obtained information
  • Guarantees: judgments are expressed as probabilities
  • Physical security, protection or evacuation
  • Work for persons or parties sanctioned by the US or EU

If a decision depends on events abroad, we should speak.

SEND AN ENQUIRY